Explanation

The graph displays the effect of this investment program on national greenhouse gas emissions. It shows the influence on the transition path—the average CO₂ reduction rate the Netherlands must maintain to become net zero by 2050. “Net zero” means that any greenhouse gases still emitted by the Netherlands in 2050 are offset by carbon removal, resulting in no net emissions. If we are enabled to carry out all projects on time and as planned, the Netherlands could become net CO₂-neutral before 2050.

The more sustainable Gasunie projects are completed on time, the greater the volumes of green gases and captured CO₂ we will transport for our customers. This greening will likely coincide with a decrease in the volume of fossil energy we transport. The graph shows net emissions—that is, the CO₂ footprint of all energy we transport on behalf of third parties to and from entities in the Netherlands. This reduction is made possible in part by Gasunie’s suppliers, connected parties, and project partners.

Our base scenario assumes that all sustainable Gasunie projects will be completed in the delivery year we’ve set and will achieve the transport volumes we’ve estimated. However, with this Transition Path Calculator, you can also explore more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios.

The Transition Path Calculator only considers gases flowing through Gasunie’s networks. For example, it excludes the contribution of green gas in the networks of regional grid operators. Any negative emissions from green gas production are also not included. In the hydrogen scenarios, only green hydrogen and imports are considered. Blue hydrogen is excluded to avoid double-counting with CCS projects (carbon capture, transport, and storage).

To determine the contribution of green gas and hydrogen, we assume they replace natural gas. This is a conservative assumption. The emission reduction contribution would be greater if, for example, oil or coal were replaced. For CCS projects, we use the expected CO₂ transport flow from captured CO₂ in the Netherlands. Storage of CO₂ from neighboring countries is not counted. Upstream chain emissions are also excluded.

Emission reduction is calculated relative to the base year 2023. As a reference for all external developments (outside of Gasunie’s sustainable projects), we use the Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) from PBL. For the years up to 2025, we use the scenario with established and proposed policies. For 2030, we also include scheduled policies. Intermediate years are interpolated. We use a natural gas emission factor of 56.2 kg/GJ.

The emissions shown are net emissions. Even at net zero emissions, natural gas consumption may still occur—for example, if CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are captured (CCS). The emission reduction from lower gas demand comes from the 2024 edition of the KEV, which includes the decline in natural gas use and the rise in green gas use.

Our figures only account for emission reduction within the Netherlands. Gasunie’s energy transition investments may also contribute to emission reductions abroad—for example, through hydrogen exports (2.8 Mton reduction in 2030) or transport of foreign CO₂ for storage in the Netherlands (3.5 Mton reduction in 2030).

The Gasunie Transition Path Calculator currently only accounts for the effects of our investments between 2020–2030. A new series of Gasunie investments for the 2030–2040 period could lead to a steeper decline in the National Transition Path.